I hope everyone had an amazing Masters! I booked more than 6k profit in the end making it the single most profitable event since subscribing to DG with outright and match bets equally contributing.
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Wow, congrats! You had the big Sargent bet too, right?
Augusta is a funny courseā¦ at times it feels like it almost doesnāt test skill that much. But course history at this place is far more predictive than anywhere else (and the data backs this up) ā some players just know how to play it.
I had a pretty good week with matchups, somehow only had 1 bet against Brooks. Didnāt do great in the EW markets (Henley, Young, and Hovland Top 8ād for me, but I made a lot of bets). Overall a small profit for the week.
Had a decent masters. Looked much better post R3 but Days collaps amazingly cost me two matchups and best aussie so a bit disgusted by that but overall happy 
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Yeah, Sargent was a big loss but four of my e/w bets finished in the top 10 alone. Tiger bets all won and there were countless other opportunities throughout the weekend on the exchanges and on Pinnacle. I had a large lay bet matched on Bennett in the top 10 market at 2.6ish after round 2 (DG had him ~75% to finish outside at that point) and also staked Rahm again at 4.6 (DG price was 4.01) on top of the European winner bet I posted above. And match bets have been running hot and above EV for a while now.
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How does it not test skill?
One thing that is striking every year re: Augusta is just how difficult it is to hole putts relative to what we see other weeks. Think it was Friday, for about 3 hours, donāt think I saw a single 10+ footer holed. It definitely makes sense in this regard why some less than stellar putters have won here.
āOne thing that is striking every year re: Augusta is just how difficult it is to hole putts relative to what we see other weeks. Think it was Friday, for about 3 hours, donāt think I saw a single 10+ footer holed. It definitely makes sense in this regard why some less than stellar putters have won here.ā
This definitely resonates with me viewing experience
The main reason is lack of shot value on a lot of tee shots. Overall I like Augusta National, but there are a lot of tee shots where you can just hit it anywhere without much of a penalty apart from a bad angle (which never really costs you that many expected strokes). I think architecture snobs, who often advocate for tree removal and wide fairways, forget how important it is for tee shots to have some meaningful consequences to them. I really dislike what theyāve done to the right of 11 fairway, it just removes most of the penalty for bailing right off the tee. Having to stripe a drive down the stretch is very compelling to watch (e.g. Spieth hitting a snipe hook on 18). In Round 3 when I was cheering against Brooks it was frustrating to watch, because on a lot of holes there isnāt really anything that can go that wrong off the tee, and sometimes even on approach. So if you are hoping for a guy to give up a few strokes lead it can be a tough watch.
Also I think Sam Bennett and Phil playing well says something about what it takes to get around Augusta. I donāt think either of them could contend on a tough PGA Tour setup with length and long rough.
Having said all this, no course seems to favour āskillā (as we define it in our model) more than Augusta National. So maybe what Iām feeling here isnāt the reality.
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I am not a fan of the current incarnation of the 11th hole. I would actually like to see them shorten it and tuck the pins encouraging guys to take on the water with their second shot. Perhaps even make the green more severe.
The architecture people are so annoying! Saying they need to take all the trees out on 7, as well as the front bunker. Why???
See many talking about having a great week. What did I miss? The last 3 weeks have been brutal. However, just a dent in the profit from the first couple of months.
I would guess Augusta, with the extreme slopes and āwrong spotā penalty, is one of worst course fits for normal strokes gained. Angle and slope of green is not factored in so people who miss in right places are rewarded more here