Assuming there will be other comments under here, but my initial question is regarding the playoff odds on the props page. Is this a bug/error or a function of the smaller field?
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Yeah… this is a bug. Not sure what could be causing this, looking into it now. In the meantime here are the correct probabilities that are on our server:
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Is this something you check each week? Was this fine (i.e. playoff % closer to 20%) in recent weeks?
edit: nevermind found the issue. Absolutely terrible bug that should be specific to this week, but thankfully restricted to just these win margin estimates. Sorry about that.
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So many betting opportunities this weekend due to the number of markets priced up. I feel like a kid in a candy shop. I have staked almost 5k on the e/w markets on Betfair alone. Also just snapped European Winner / Yes @ 4.25 at Pinnacle (they keep posting new lines as I type). It’s down to 3.22 now, DG fair price is 3.35 so massive value.
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Daily fantasy players. What types of adjustments are you making to LIV players to account for lack of data? Default model has Cam Smith negative value, but I just don’t see a scenario in which you can’t put him in a single lineup.
For reference, I do multi entry large tournaments so I’m trying to spread exposure over 100+ lineups. I’m curious to hear peoples thoughts!
Similar to goldman, I probably missed this awhile back but are there details around how the model incorporates LIV? Might be a good topic for model talk if it hasn’t been done already.
Is there a way to change the scoring in the fantasy projections? Or is the raw data used to calculate the fantasy projections located somewhere?
Any way to model/simulate number of players under given score/cutline/lowest round and so on? Plenty of specific scoring props out.
No, there aren’t really any details on it. But I don’t think LIV should be any different than incorporating any other event into our SG adjustment process. They have enough players that (at the moment, anyways) play on other tours so we can estimate the relative strength of their fields pretty well. Some potential issues could be that you think LIV guys aren’t trying, or the courses aren’t testing skill as much. But I’m not sure there’s enough data yet to make any adjustments for that (more so for the latter point about course fit).
Do you mean the fantasy scoring (e.g. points given out for birdie/par/bogies, etc?). There is no way to change this, no. We just cover DK/FD/Yahoo formats at the moment.
You can change the predicted scoring average (i.e. course difficulty) using the toggle above the table.
Not really… we should build out more raw scoring projection capability. But most of this comes down to predicting how hard the course will play, which we don’t really spend much time on (just using a model fit on the historical data from every course).
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Yes thats what I meant. And no way to see the components of the fantasy projection? As in the 76 total points consists of 3.2 birdies, 8.8 pars, etc…
My question was more focused on areas like SG. For example, would a smaller sample size for DJ’s APP stats play into confidence levels & significance? Should we expect more variance for these players as a result?
PS - thanks for all you do, DG is one of the coolest sites on the internet imo.
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Any ideas on how i should calc top 10 after round 1? I dont think extrapolating the same increase from winner to top 10 would be right as 1 round has more volatility.
If you have the Plus subscription you can simulate 1 round here. And ya, I think your intuition is correct.
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Yeah, since LIV has no SG category data that has an effect. We can’t make the same adjustments we do to PGA Tour players skill (e.g. putting less weight on strokes gained on the greens). But that’s a relatively minor difference. They’ve also played less than normal between Jan 1 and the Masters, so that has an effect on their predicted skill too. But I don’t think there is more uncertainty around the LIV guys than there would be for players from any tour other than the PGA Tour.
Is there any way to run a second round leader sim?
Auto-grading seems to have Zalatoris bets as losing but I imagine these will be void everywhere not having played a shot.
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Yea, was a void. Also, Woods vs Garcia matchup (cris) was just autograded as a loss with the WD but already graded as a win by cris. Same with Oosthuizen. Both missing the cut of course.
Overall it was a good week with Tiger involved. Solving 2 of 4 cris mathcups as an underdog. Value vs Kirk in RD2. Showed value on RD3 as well but passed with the weather and him looking physically worn out.
Was pretty good value on pinny missing T20 and T40 aswell. But of course prices changing quickly early in the week.
Ok, will have that fixed before day’s end.
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