Recently saw Ludvig Aberg at 50/1 pre tourney model to win the Genesis tournament. How much were those odds being pulled down for the outlier performance at pebble and the rounds he played sick at Farmers 1.0? He fell to 16 in DG rankings too. Could there have been too much of a drastic shift? Curious to hear what you guys think. I was a little thrown off by the fair odds on him for “Genesis”
Similar thing here with Rasmus this week. He dropped significantly in the DG rankings. And his skill rating will surely take a hit.
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Yeah I ignored Aberg too much last week and got punished for it
Yeah, it felt like Aberg was too low all last week. His case is a bit special (compared to, say, Rasmus this week) as his outlier performances did have a potential explanation (illness).
This is one of the main questions for modelling golf: how much predictive power do a couple bad tournaments have? It seems intuitively appealing to put less weight on the big outliers (e.g. 5+ strokes off baseline) but it’s hard to implement that, and kind of hard to justify it too (although there are clear cut cases, like when that guy made a 12 at the American Express this year).
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Cant wait to see the fair you guys come up with on Rasmus. I have clicked 17,18,20 and 22 so far. And Taylore Moore 30
Thank you for response. Something I’ll be more mindful of in the future