New to DataGolf. Curious if anyone would share things they been doing with success in the matchup/3-ball markets? I don’t want anyone to leak alpha, but I’m assuming the market has semi priced in DG’s pricing where you can just “see value → bet → profit”.
Appreciate any insight.
Did you mean can’t just see value, bet, profit?
It does seem like for matchups and 3-balls there is much less copying / inferring our prices once the tournament begins. When we update after each round (usually 30-60 mins after the round, or later if we need to wait for tee times), most books will have already posted odds, especially during bigger weeks. Contrast that with Monday-Wednesday where matchups and 3-balls are posted after other markets have already been up for a while, and it’s not surprising that books’ prices are much closer to ours for pre-tournament matchups.
As you use the tools and get familiar with the model you will probably also develop a sense of why the model is showing value. Some weeks we are just really low on certain players (Theegala is an example this week), so if round 4 rolls around and yet another +EV bet shows up against Theegala, you might not want to take it (although I am taking one today against him), because the market clearly disagrees with our model’s assessment of the situation. Other times a borderline +EV bet might come up on a player that our model hates (that week or in recent weeks), and I might be willing to take that.
The odds screen view on the matchup page is also very useful for showing outlier prices relative to the rest of the betting market; obviously a +EV bet is more believable when it’s also value relative to other books’ prices.