I have access to a menu of “Finishing Position” wagers every week thru a PPH account.
An example from this week:
S. Straka 27 or Better -120 → DG Odds Top 27: +150
S. Straka 28 or Worse -120 → DG Odds Top 28: +144
**Note: the vig for both sides of all these bets is always -120
In this example, is his odds of finishing 28 or worse -144? Do I simply inverse the odds?
These seem like good wagers, but I have been doing something wrong in my calculations and have a poor win %.
Probably easiest to work in percentages, but yes that’s correct. His top 28 probability is 41% (+144) which means his probability of finishing outside 28th is 59% (-144).
One thing I would check is whether they adjust for ties or not. For example, if Straka finishes in a 5-way tie for 28th, does that count as a Top 28? If it does, then you would want to use our probabilities that do not adjust for dead-heats (you can use the toggle above the pre-tournament table). This would move Straka’s Top 28 probability to 43.9%, so 56.1% (-128) of finishing outside the top 28.