Notoriously over- and undervalued

Do you have any golfers you feel are notoriously overvalued? Or golfers that DG picks up quicker as better than the general public and/or bookies thinks?

It’s obviously hard to actually know, but I’m sure everyone here have some golfers they think “again with the…” when seeing high or low on a odds list.

My gut feeling is that DG is doing it’s job regarding finding true value on players playing on multiple toures and/or when taking the step up on the ladder. KFT to PGA, Challenge to EUR, EUR to PGA, just as intented with True SG. I don’t have much to back it up with, not being here for long, but after seeing/following a couple of tourneys with Hennie Du Plessis and Lukas Nemez I feel DG where right on point when showing value on both of them. Same with Adrian Meronk. Maybe that Matthias Schmid is undervalued. Atleast I think he’s gonna be pretty good. I like his swing and seem to be mentally strong and able to make many birdies. But if the numbers say something else, not much to do about that.

Notoriously might be the wrong word though. Sooner or later books and DG gonna pick up. Anyway. Shoot.

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I can’t say that I’m enjoying betting against Haotong Li much. He is close to the archetype that we tend to undervalue: plays way below his long-term skill for a period of 6 months to a year, then suddenly finds form again and our model is slow to adjust.

Funny you should mention him. Cost me a ton this week. Good week overall though!

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Glad somebody had a good week. Getting crushed here.

Ya, worst week of the year so far for our personal betting.

Speaking of undervalued I think Data Golf might be selling Arnaus short

He has 1 win, 3 Top 5’s, and 5 Top 10’s in 9 starts in 2022. Also has 3 missed cuts

I think this guy is good. I think he’ll enter the top 50 world rankings and establish himself as one of the top players in the European Tour very soon (if he hasn’t already)

As long as you’re not backing him to make the cut at -400 and avoid matchups and T20/T30/T40 markets I think you’ll do OK

Obviously when he’s on he gets lots of Top 10’s

Yeah, I have felt that way about Arnaus in the past, although more recently I think we’ve been a bit more reasonable with him.

You should be careful though Daniel, you said similar things about one Garrick Higgo :wink: , whose career hasn’t taken off yet. The quality of these European Tour events is truly awful.


Thought about the quality and I noticed the ET average is only slightly higher than KFT. And it feels about right. Surely the difference has been bigger with advantage ET in the past? I feel the depth is on a record low.

Well the depth is about to be tested further with the new Greg Norman venture

South Africans/Australiasians may be geographically inclined to play in Asia if the money is comparable

The quality of the field is about the money and sponsorships. I would like to see what would happen with a more level playing field.

We’ve already seen that the European Tour has 10 or so big money events that can routinely draw several Top 50 players (along with hefty appearance fees, for sure)

Haotong is the man and he is back. I completely agree with this one.

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Maybe that gives hope for someone like NIck Watney

I mean, he’s still bad but if I can get him to finish in the Top 40 at +400 I have to at least think about it

The difference between the DP World Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour is that the DP World Tour has 7 big money events with strong fields:

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Dubai Desert Classic
Horizon Irish Open
Genesis Scottish Open
BMW PGA Championship
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
DP World Tour Championship

If we see a Korn Ferry Tour quality field in the Horizon Irish Open then I think there’s a real problem, but I think you’ll see a few good players there

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Also it looks like opposite field PGA Tour events are co-sanctioned by the DP World Tour now. I like this change since I’d rather see DP World Tour and Korn Ferry pros fill out these fields than 30 Smylie Kaufmans

Yeah the depth on the Euro tour is lower than in the past. They also don’t have any top talent anymore in most of their events (as evidenced by the highest win probabilities being just 3-4%). I feel like they also play more co-sanctioned events in Africa and Asia now, which lowers the quality of their average event. But even their continental European events are worse now.

I stand corrected

Surprised at how weak the field is for the Irish Open

You have Lowry, Hatton, and Power playing there, but given the size of the purse and the opportunity to go to Europe a week earlier, I expected a few more good European players to be in the field. Several of them haven’t played for weeks

Scottish Open is a co-sanctioned event so we’ll probably see a stronger field there

Also with the new “strategic alliance” the DP World Tour has officially become a feeder to the PGA Tour. It seems that Pelley is conducting a controlled demolition of the DP World Tour and it is now Korn Ferry Tour #2.

I think this is going to speed up the exodus to the Asian Tour. It may become the #2 tour in the world, as soon as 2023

Meanwhile nice call, madmartigan5.

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I think Bryson is back

Ah, classic @DanielSong39. Sweeping premature conclusions based on little evidence! :upside_down_face:


What could go wrong? Garrick Higgo turned out to be a superstar right? :grinning:


Looking back on that Higgo thread, I actually brought up Cameron Young!