How many of you here focus exclusively on the PGA tour? I’d be interested to hear other people’s results of betting on PGA vs DP/LIV.
As part of my results analysis this morning, I noticed that 98% of my DG profit is from the PGA tour. I am slightly up on LIV and slightly down on DP. This is about 20 months of DG betting. I’m running way behind EV on all tours.
Just looking at ways to reduce workload and variance, so this stands out as a pretty obvious place to start.
I just took a look.
31.13% of my total $ profit is on DP World Tour.
8.68% of my total $ profit is on LIV.
21.83% of my total $ profit is on the Majors.
38.36% of my total $ profit is on the PGA Tour.
Calculating the % returns for all tour would be too long to do for me cause I would have to do it by hand …but it gives you an idea that pretty much all tours are profitable, at least for me.
What threshold have you used for each of these tours? I just became a member and im not seeing a lot of > .05 EV positions.
What threshold have you employed for PGA Tour? Is it safe to say these predictions are a little more accurate and a lower threshold can be employed?
This late in the week there won’t be many, you need to be quick on Mondays.
A lot of people use our numbers, so if they are any good then most books will adjust their odds quickly after we release. And if some prices don’t adjust, and it’s a sharper book, you might want to dig into the bet a bit to decide if there is something we are missing (e.g. injury, big recent improvement, etc.) before making it.
3-balls and matchups will show more value (on PGAT at least) for later rounds, as books can’t copy our numbers as easily.
I’ve employed 10% threshold for more tours, although having done a thorough analysis of my results this week, I’d probably be happy to drop that to 5% for the PGA as it’s performing really well in just about all categories (apart from Top 5/10/20 for me).
For DP and LIV, I’d be inclined to leave it at 10% as my results for those tours are a bit all over the place.
At what time around Mondays is it optimal to be ready to fire? And do your numbers get posted BEFORE or AFTER the market odds go live on the books?
There will be a note at the top of the site. It’s usually 130 ET for the PGAT and DPWT. Most books have posted outright markets by this time, some have posted finish positions, a few have posted matchups. So by the time 3-balls are released on Tuesday, the market has incorporated most of the useful information from our model, and it’s rare to find value at even the soft books for R1 matchups/3-balls (it wasn’t always this way… but we have more market influence with each passing year unfortunately).
edit: we don’t update matchup stuff until later in the day. Outrights and finish positions are at 130.
Understood. You mentioned that theres generally more opportunities in the later round match ups because its harder for the books to copy, is there usually a nice window of time to capitalize on > .05 EV edges for those later rounds ?
Just right after the round finishes up when we first update the Scratch Tools. On Thursday this will be 20-30 minutes after they finish, on Friday/Saturday we need to wait for tee times to be posted.
I can provide a good example of this too that happened this week.
Being in Europe, the Outright odds are usually posted later in the day for me (around 6:30 pm) and the majority of books i use post golf odds around 11:00 am so i have a nice window to catch a some bigger odds that end up drifting when DG odds are posted.
Although i cant compare them when books open, i usually sort the field by DG rankings to have an idea on who the books are higher on compared to DG and i managed to get Si Woo Kim this week around +6000 (60/1).
I generally do this before the player decomps are released so i have a few degrees of liberty then analyzing early odds due to the adjustments on player baselines but with time you get used to making the mental exercise of converting DG true strokes gained and a equivalent odd to understand if its a overpriced number.
Just an example that seems to be recorrent with faster books. Some are slower to adjust but once DG publish their numbers, theres a lot of movement on those.
My results by tour this year (loosely speaking):
PGA/Majors (70% of volume): up big on matchups, down slightly on outrights / finish positions.
Euro (23% of volume): up pretty big on outrights, up a smaller amount on matchups
LIV (7% of volume): up small amounts on outrights and matchups.
What threshold are you typically using for PGA Tour matchups? Does anyone know if betting smaller edges (between .01 > .04) are profitable for this league? Seems apparent the predictions have less error / more accurate for PGA Tour. There is an ample volume of smaller edges for PGA Tour matchups still widely available.
I am at 5% for matchups on all tours but for sharper books like Pinnacle or Betcris I do not take 5-6% matchups. My treshold is higher for those. I don’t think taking lower than 5% ev matchups would be a good idea but you can try if you want.
Understood, that makes sense given the sharpness of those two books to raise it.
I’ve noticed you contribute a lot here and provide a lot of valuable insight. Do you by chance have a Telegram or other messaging platform where I can ask you a few more additional questions? Would provide a more fluid dialogue. Would be greatly appreciated.
I have no clue what telegram is lol.
You can shoot me a DM here if you want I will try to help, but I’m far from the best golf bettor over here haha
Can you send me a DM? I can’t seem to locate where this option is