Hi! Recent subscriber but long term lurker. I enjoy betting on round score over/under markets. From what I’ve read recent form should have little input on the predicted score of a player for the next round. I note romain langasque as having very good recent form and the market is pricing it in for tomorrow’s score (on the exchanges in the UK, using relative pricing to other similarly rated DG players who have much higher implied scores from betfair odds). Am I misunderstanding the value of recent form, or is the market? Thanks!
Hello!
Two relevant things for Langasque/Sullivan’s prices are that Sullivan is leading (which will have a negative effect on his R2 performance, especially according to the market’s view) and also they are in different waves: Langasque in the morning in R2 (which will help him), and Sullivan in the afternoon.
Even in our model (as opposed to market prices), projected skills can deviate pretty far from the start-of-week skills due to players’ performance in earlier rounds of the tournament, weather splits, and pressure adjustments.
I’m guessing the morning / afternoon difference is what’s causing most of the price discrepancies you see, and maybe also how the players performed in R1. Or maybe the market just disagrees with our model’s assessment of some of the players’ skill levels.
Thanks a lot Matt. Your point that projected scores can be impacted by a player’s previous rounds in the tournament is the question I am trying to figure out. If we have a player’s pre tournament skill assumption, and they have exceeded it (for example) in the first 2 rounds, would your model expect an improvement in third round score (all else equal)?
Let’s say for example a player comes into the to tournament with a skill rating that puts them in the bottom quartile of the field. But then after two rounds they are top 10, would you be adjusting their skill up for the third round?
Also, is there any way on the site of seeing a graph of the scores vs tee time? Rather than just by wave.
Thanks so much!
Thinking again about this concept this week. Eddie Peperrell came into the week in pretty bad shape (relative to his history) and having lost full playing rights on the DP. His pre tournament base was around -1. He now co-leads. How much should we be adjusting his score expectancy from these three rounds? I’m wondering if it theoretically counteracts the negative impact from leading the tournament going into R4 and therefore he ends up at -1. Any thoughts helpful 
Thanks a lot