Harman at +30% EV to win across all books is this fr or fake news?
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DG model always favours the leader. Basically. Especially if it’s a lesser known. Or just not one of the big boys, to be a bit more fair to Harman.
Not sure what to make of it. Hard to buy 50% winning chance though, of course. But I would fire 2.9x+ or whatever on the exchanges though if I wanted more risk…
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50% is what a model produces that is making a standard negative skill adjustment for leading, so that’s useful info. But realistically a model isn’t going to tell you that much here… it’s more a question of whether you think Harman is going to show up tomorrow and play kind of close to his normal level, or whether he’s going to show up and be a completely different (not in a good way) golfer.
I’ll be interested in Betcris’ price.
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Cris playing it safe with 2.5x.
edit: Adjusting down to 2.25. Betfair aswell. 2.96->2.78
Yeah they will update again, I think. Whenever their prices are round numbers it means it’s like a preliminary update, I think.
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Ran R3.
Paddy 121x cris. DG 88.7x
Looks like perfect weather for a hardworking irishman.
Also Scheffler 23.5x. DG 15.7x
Ryan Fox 81.5x. DG 58.6x.
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I remember the commentators talking before the tournament started that the greens here are very tricky. They look flat but a lot of subtle breaks. After seeing multiple people chip it through the green I guess they are right.
It’s a short game major, on the gettable holes there is OOB in play so being aggressive can land you a huge score. Harman has literally made his whole career from his work around the greens and on them so I’m not surprised to see him playing so well.
I’ve seen more 3 putts from 30 feet than any other tournament, it’s absolutely brutal to watch and it’s probably why we have such a random ‘not ball striker’ leaderboard.
It will be interesting to see how weather can change this but right now it’s looking like Harman’s got this in the bag. 2 rounds of even par will seal the deal most likely. Thank God I’ve got a bet on him 
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Course looks like it’s playing a lot softer today. Quite a few holes under par. Spicy stuff, that’s gotta be good for my boy Cam Young!
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How does Harman play in the rain? Likely his back nine will be rain soaked.
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He makes a few birdies and a few bogeys
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Is Grillo a poor man’s Hovland? Very similar just a little worse in every category.
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It made me realize how little the pros play tournament golf on courses with OB…whereas most courses I play have OB on at least 6 holes. I suspect it is similar for most golfers. Obviously the nature of building grandstands is playing at places with much more property…
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Yeah that is true, but the pros do play courses where there is OB / dense bush like 20 yards off both sides of every fairway a fair bit. TPC Boston comes to mind. What is rare is for OB to be a few paces off the fairway or green, and I don’t think you’ll see that at many munis either. I played a couple courses growing up that had dense bush on every hole and remember thinking how nerve-wracking they were in competitive settings. Canadian Tour events came to both those courses eventually (Eagle Creek was one of them, played last week) and the pros still tear it up. So I think the key is how far off the fairway the junk is; also this week, the fact that there was only trouble on one side leads to a ton of huge bailouts that you wouldn’t see with trouble on both sides.
I agree with your general sentiment though, it’s nice to see the pros struggle when there are real consequences to an errant tee shot.
Yeah, to be clear this wasn’t a pro’s play easier courses take. Honestly more of a “hit it as far as you can and find it is maybe not the best strategy for the average golfer” take. My home course has OB within 10 yards of the fairway around the landing area on at least 4 holes.
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Ah, ya sorry I thought it was partly a pros-play-easy-courses take. I used to think that to some degree so that’s probably why I jumped to that conclusion.
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This is a great point, and one I was discussing with another member of this forum. On the PGA tour, you are by-and-large rewarded for hitting the ball as far as you can off the tee, almost all the time (I am not saying I have an issue with this, it just seems to be the case).
When we tee it up, employing this strategy, we
- Hit it OB
- Lose the ball in the woods/crap
My whole life I have hated OB as a feature wherever I found it-- I always feel like a hazard/penalty is a better option if possible, especially for amateur players (even if you are hitting it out of the property, just play it is a mandatory drop hazard or something). I understand why it is not common at professional events (often when it is, pros will play down adjacent fairways, messing things up), but man was it awesome to see for a change. I don’t think there is a good way of integrating something similar into regular events, but OB 2 yards off the green/fairway was just awesome to watch for once
A natural first step, as the DG Advisory Committee has already suggested, would be to make all grandstands OB. This would improve safety for attendees and really increase drama, as well as penalize terrible shots.
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Strongly agree to just mark the woods/thicket/crap red at 99.9% of courses. Speeds up play and is the right penalty.
Bleacher OB would be tough but certainly something like with Rahm hit it into the staging area 30 yards left of the hole at Riv…that should be OB not TIO. For bleachers I would like to see at least what the R&A does where the drop zone is in crappy grass from a bad spot.
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