For years, DPWT T20s have been so good to me (PGAT has been blah). But the second half of the season was a complete disaster. What’s working best these days? Matchups?
Something something variance 
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Adverse selection? Edges your playing too small? Are you using fractional
Kelly bet sizing
if DG tracked PGA outrights this year im guessing ROI would’ve been through the roof
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I have played the PGA Tour outrights (only pre-tourney) every week and get them as close to 1:30 p.m. as possible. Only taking EV of 20% … who did I miss this season that would have put us through the roof? I don’t think I had one winner.
But I’ve never found them to be great. the t20s (8% EV), especially Euro, have been tremendous. Not this year.
On KFT … did have Josh Teater (+16000) and Bryson Nimmer (+42000) outrights early in the season.
Obviously a lot of it depends on the book(s) you are using, but Spaun (US Open), Gotterup (Scottish), and Brennan (Utah) were all big value to start the week. Spaun and Gotterup’s value in particular hung around for a while, I believe. And then also Henley at API, Keegan at Travelers, and Highsmith at Cognizant (not sure how widespread their value was).
There were also some Euro winners. This year was definitely a big overperfomance on outrights.
I think at this point, with books copying our numbers so much, you shouldn’t be too strict with an EV cutoff. 20% on outrights will probably mainly just result in you betting on mega-long shots.
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