With this week kicking off 2025 in golf I decided to make my list of the top 25 golfers under the age of 25. Not sure if rankings tend to get posted here, but these are usually fun archival things to look back on and see how things played out as well as starting a discussion about the up-and-comers of golf. My way of thinking through this was to consider who I think would perform the best across all four majors if guaranteed a start in each. Here’s my collection of names, let me know what you think!
- Tom Kim
- Akshay Bhatia
- Rasmus Hojgaard
- Nicolai Hojgaard
- Keita Nakajima
- Michael Thorbjornsen
- Luke Clanton
- Nick Dunlap
- Tom McKibbin
- David Puig
- Neal Shipley
- Ryo Hisatsune
- Caleb Surratt
- Joe Highsmith
- Eugenio Chacarra
- Christo Lamprecht
- John Keefer
- Wenyi Ding
- Yubin Jang
- Ricky Castillo
- Karl Vilips
- Kensei Hirata
- Taiga Semikawa
- William Mouw
- Tom Vaillant
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Seems like a good list.
My main non-data (or, partly data-related) take for 2025 related to this is that Neal Shipley is going to be very good. Not exactly going out on a limb, but I think he should be slightly higher up on this list.
Shipley’s case is also interesting because he doesn’t have any status on a major tour to begin 2025. But I think if you are playing at or slightly above a PGA Tour level, there are enough pathways that you’ll find yourself with status on tour very quickly.
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Yeah, I mean the assumption here is that you get the starts anyway so his Korn Ferry Tour (?) status is not an issue.
I think this is a fair spot for him and I tried to put him high as well. His limited detailed data emphasizes ball striking, which just sets up better for tougher courses, and this probably was realized by his better play as a pro than when he had amateur status.
Part of it for me was just that maybe his ceiling isn’t as high as some of the guys above, topping out with +1.70 stokes gained in a 4 round tournament. Then when I look round by round he feels like he has less pop than guys like Puig, Dunlap, Clanton, Thorbjornsen, Nakajima (McKibbin is kind of a higher value Shipley to me).
I don’t know if he’ll get any KFT starts at the start of the year, maybe sponsors? The rest will need to be Monday Qs.
Yeah, thinking about it a bit more, it is hard to put Shipley definitively ahead of any of the guys you’ve ranked above him if we are just talking about how they’d play in the 2025 majors. But I actually think Shipley has more upside, simply because we haven’t seen as much from him. Whereas the Hojgaards, Nakajima, McKibbin, Puig, are all pretty known quantities having been pro for a few seasons, and I don’t think their ceilings are that high.
Clanton could (should?) be at the level of a top 50 player by next summer barring a drop in form, on the level of Morikawa/Hovland/Wolff when they turned pro. He’s playing at a significantly higher level than Thorbjornsen ever reached as an amateur. I expect him to have a similar start to his pro career to Aberg, or maybe even better. Maybe I’m overreacting to his past year of data, but he’s in pretty elite company on our all-time amateur list.
But ya, overall your list seems very well thought out. What was your analysis on Keefer? Really hot run right now, but we saw that with Dumont de Chassart last year and he had a rough 2024.
For Clanton I’m operating under a (perhaps false) assumption that amateurs/rookies struggle more in majors initially, having little practice on such hard courses with the added pressure and higher difficulty of playing the weekend. Everything he’s displayed right now says he should be somewhere in that top 5, but I’ve pushed a little bit and basically three way tied him with fellow Americans Dunlap and Thorbjornsen.
My reason for Thor being higher isn’t entirely founded, but looking at his detailed strokes gained since turning pro it feels like he has more to squeeze out of his driver, as he largely looks good viewing him round by round, but there are occasional large negative rounds because he has a tendency to spray it a bit and I think if he irons that out it’s easy to see weeks like his 2nd at the John Deere becoming more common. Clanton should probably be higher.
You pretty much nailed why I’m lower on Keefer actually. His top 4 round performance last year was only +1.90, which is lower than I’d like to see, but I also do have some visions of ADC, so I placed him more conservatively.
What about Gordon Sargent?
Good list and interesting topic. Angel Ayora feels like the big omission. Didn’t seem like much until last year on the Challenge Tour but has immediately looked good on the DPWT. Massive OTT with a bit more control than Lamprecht/Puig types and way younger.
EDIT: Read the criteria again and I guess Ayora is rawer than a lot on this list. I’d still back him to flash immediately and feasible he could already be a star by later this season.
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Ayora was one of the top off (maybe the top?), but I will admit that I never quite realized just how far he hits the ball, which is something I tend to like.
When I looked at him round by round there was still more to be desired. He has been very up and down and some of his high finished seem to be carried by great single rounds, which is something I don’t really love to see for future performance.
There’s a strong argument for him to be on, and pretty high, as he’s 176th in DG rankings and 189th in OWGR right now. Interesting player to watch this year for sure.
Not really sure what to do with him given his down year so I hesitantly left him off. He was a -0.79 strokes gained player in 2024 and it’s not like he kills it every year in his U.S. Open start or does something that would basically gift him a spot. He still had some good performances last year though so wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back to a little below PGA tour average in his last amateur season.
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Fun exercise. I would have Jackson Koivun in the top 25 despite his “struggles” the last half of 2024.
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Yes, I wasn’t sure what to do with him given his quick rise and subsequent “fall.” Preferred guys I felt had more clarity.
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