Any reason the ownership projections are so closely lumped together? Seems like there will surely be guys well over 20% (Sungjae).
No reason… in general projections (i.e. expectations) will be more tightly bunched than the actual values. In other words we know there will be guys over 20% for sure this week, but we don’t know who – therefore anyone who does hit 20+ will be unexpected from the perspective of the model. I find this more intuitive when thinking about projected fantasy points – the top points earner in a given week will always be an over-performance.
Of course, we could easily be low on Sungjae. Our ownerships projections aren’t great it seems… it might be something where you have to make manual adjustments (which we aren’t doing). It should be obvious but just in case you didn’t notice, you can make your own adjustments to our projected ownerships in the fantasy projections table.
