Weather & wave splits

General Discussion
#1

I’ve been trying to run my own wave splits projections and weather-incorporated player round projections bet mostly round score props and some other derivatives. Based on the FAQ and what the number spits out when I run my two different versions, it seems like you guys weigh the history of wave splits at that specific course pretty heavily, as opposed to just using a PGA TOUR baseline for early/late splits.

Is there an easy explanation behind why that course specifically would be more predictive of splits? Possible my math is off and I’m misinterpreting it, but when I run my course-specific version I end up closer to your wave split numbers than when I run the PGA TOUR baseline version.

#2

We don’t put any weight on historical splits at a given course. Without adjustments for weather, the predicted splits (pre-tournament) would be basically the same for every event. After R1, when predicting R2 we do account for how the course played in the morning/afternoon in R1, as that is quite predictive for R2’s split.

#3

Ah, OK, that must be where I’m getting the difference from. Makes a ton of sense. Thanks!