Lots of really strong Thursday rounds for DG darlings! The new bet tracking feature is pretty good F5 mashing material.
Who are you sweating hard going into Friday and the weekend?
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Spaun, Lipsky, Harman and Henley. Scheffler and Hovland played really well which throws a big spanner into the works! I think Henley is due for something to happen so wouldn’t be surprised to see him do well this week but he has some tough competition to beat.
Also Travis Vick missing the cut may have been the easiest money I’ve ever made, he’s paid for my wife’s car getting towed today…
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I’ve got Henley T20, T10, and T5 for heaps. Also Kuchar, Lipsky, Spaun, Armour and Duncan for T20 and T10. Big week brewing!
Not gonna lie about the bet tracker. That unfortunate erase was incredible frustrating. Took me well over an hour to re-log them. Anyway, all good now.
Really nice start to outright and place bets for sure. Not too happy seeing Mcnealy, Montgomery and English with hot starts though.
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Let’s go Henley you beauty!
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The question is… do you add more Henley now?
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He’s at 2.50’s on Betfair so yea I’m gonna load up a bit more
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Normally I would but this time I lost track a bit and went too heavy on him pre. All very good now obviously, though.
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Well done. Down to 2.24 now.
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It’s bizarre to me how little respect the books are giving Henley. He’s currently 81% to win according to us, but being offered at 1.4 (71%) on 365. Henley is on 11 right now with a 5-shot lead in the middle of the fairway.
Maybe they are adjusting for the fact that you can make doubles in a hurry at this course, and we aren’t really doing much to account for that. Although this isn’t actually a high-variance course on the whole.
I changed how we update player skill as the event progresses recently (slowly been implemented the last couple weeks to make sure there are no bugs), and final round leaders will be getting a slightly larger negative bump going forward. Which is why I’m surprised we still like Henley way more than the books.
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Great information. May I ask how you decided to make these changes? Remember you’ve said you’re gonna keep firing on the leaders when DG shows value, which almost always is the case, or atleast showing noticable higher winning chance the implied odds at the books. Have you noticed anything new that changed your stand a bit, or back tracked with meaningful sample size?
I’d meaning to redo the analysis of predicting R2-R4 performance for a while. I kind of realized that adjusting for pressure is very closely related to adjusting for performance in the earlier rounds of a tournament. For example, if you are updating pretty aggressively on how a player performed in R1-R3 to predict R4 performance, then your estimates of the effect of ‘pressure’ in R4 will be larger than they otherwise would be, because the baselines you’ve predicted will be higher for the leaders (who, presumably, played well in R1-R3 to get in that position).
I wrote a blog post about it recently; kind of got in the weeds a bit and it didn’t end up being the most readable post. But anyways, I am just more confident now that I’ve correctly estimated the relationships between R4 performance and pre-tournament skill + R1-R3 performance + pressure (i.e. position on the leaderboard). Things haven’t changed too much, there will be some cases I think where we are lower on leaders than before, but nothing too drastic. I’m sure we will continue to show value against the soft books heading into R3/R4 when an unproven player leads. (But Henley isn’t exactly unproven… he’s kind of in a middle ground.)
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Awesome, love it! I somehow missed that blog post. Gonna read it now.
Speaking of R1-R3 to predict R4 performance. Already curious on how Detry will be treated for tomorrow 
But with Henley crushing it one can live with that.
Yeah, Detry is frustrating. The main thing this week for him is his course fit. Seems like we overdid it (or it’s just randomness! who knows). If we had SG category data this week it would be possible to update more strongly on Detry for R4 if his good play this week was T2G, but without that the update won’t be huge.
I’m sure we will show value against Detry and Higgs tomorrow again. Not sure if I’ll partake… went 0-3-1 on round matchups today to partially spoil a great week so far.
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Yea, same for me. Felt good fading Higgs regardless. 70 R1, and then 62 early wave. Irregular performances seems fitting for someone with past struggles. Kuch’s 3+bogey to fuck everything up vs overrated English was more frustrating though, even if he atleast managed a tie.
Still got hopes for Lingmerth atleast T10 also. Would have loved seeing him higher up. He’s a great performer under pressure IMO. As a swede I’m glad seeing him back in form though.
So we’re getting Hovland vs Detry. Just as a comparison. In round 3 we would get 1.6x vs 2.68x in the prop tool.
Hm… actually those are the R4 probabilities (page is ‘officially’ updated now). The underlying files that those sims use were updated 20 minutes ago or so.
For reference… Hovland’s skill has gone from 1.57 pre-tournament to 1.47 for tomorrow, while Detry has gone from 0.08 to 0.2. Both players are getting about a -0.2 stroke adjustment for their position on the leaderboard for tomorrow.
Market loves Hovland here obviously so we might not show value.
Yea, I noticed that. Got the same now. DK already out. 1.69 Hov vs 2.25. So that’s an easy pass. Glad to stay away from Detry. But you just know some other bookie gonna mess that up.
Armour to lock in the first place win of the day? Would be a sweet start. Just keep it up, Ryan!
Munoz top south american killed instantly though.
@matt_courchene read the blog post last night. Interesting reading like always!
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