I would love to see others’ results. This is my nets for the year using ALL DG suggested plays I could get down (20% and up on wins, 8% & up on T20s). Only spotty LIV plays because they dont offer LIV at the legal books here.
I used QK for wager size. Start of the year, unit size was $45 ended close to $100. Most of the success came very early in the season.
This is AT LEAST 2 years in a row where PGAT was a dud. Makes sense I assume with the numbers logically sharper?
So is it even worth pumping $ into PGAT anymore?
By Tour
Dr. Pepper $3,770.00
Korn Ferry $306.35
LIV -$204.58
Olympics $176.14
PGA Tour -$1,216.83
PGA Tour Alternate $408.07
Tour Net Record
DP Win $976.43 3-167
DP Top 20 $2,793.57 34-118
KFT Win $306.35 2-249
LIV Win -$113.29 0-14
LIV Top 5 -$9.00 0-1
LIV Top 10 -$82.29 0-3
OLY Win -$18.71 0-3
OLY T20 $194.85 1-2
PGAT Win -$614.42 0-207
PGAT Top 5 $79.78 1-3
PGAT Top 10 $7.12 1-3
PGAT Top 20 -$689.31 15-96
PGAT Alt Win -$135.17 0-15
PGAT Alt Top 20 $543.24 5-8
A couple people put their results in the Best Bet thread.
I personally would not give up on the PGA Tour… I don’t think there could be that much of a divergence in theoretical edge on the two tours. Plus matchups did very well on the PGAT this year (and not so good on the DP). Pre-2023 I think Top 20s and groups on the PGAT were the money makers with the model for a lot of people.
Sorry I didnt see the stuff under the Best Bet … didnt mean to double up! The PGAT (non-matchups) also getting harder and harder to find. I hit the books at the moment these are released and 90 percent are gone. The ET prices (some not all) seem to stay around longer. At least on the books I use. I may need to dip into the matchups (used to hit them, but spend a lot of time on the outrights/places). Thanks for the info!
Most of what I bet is tournament props (nationality bets, amateur, lefty, etc), matchups and 3-balls and it’s going pretty good on every tour.
Of course you have to grind a bit more and manual sim matchups on certain books but I find it very fun.
I only bet winners and top placement when bright green pops on the screen and at Majors. But I very rarely bet those markets. I know some people do it and have success so you definetly CAN.
I love the props you mentioned. It’s definitely a lot tougher for me to quickly run the numbers to identify value. The outrights and T20s don’t take too long in excel.
411 units. So ROI (12%) was the highest it’s ever been for me in a year, but volume was the lowest its been. Net result was similar total profit to 2023 (where ROI was 8.3%).
I didn’t bet many 3-balls or round matchups (partly because I was just lazy, partly because there are fewer opportunities now).
Nice. Thanks for posting.
From what I have seen , ROIs close to 10% are pretty normal.
What safety margin do you use? Like you need 10% EV to bet? I guess it depends on the market. An interesting metric is comparing EV with Real Value (RV). Quite hard to measure of course when the number of bets is limited (like in Golf). Usually EV is far from RV unfortunately.
PS: this forum is weird. Replies are posted twice (once in the correct thread, once in the main thread). And your latest reply is not (yet?) in the correct thread. Is it just me?
Not sure… I only see posts once. Are you able to see a mega-thread that has all posts in it or something? This forum template is pretty common.
You might be interested in the betting results summary sections of this post. It looks at expected vs. realized value.
10% ROIs are normal conditional on being someone who posts in this forum haha… I certainly get the odd email from users saying the model is useless and they are losing money. A lot of it will depend on the books you have access too; now that our site/model is well known by the market, it’s trickier to find “real” value. And of course variance plays a huge role in year-to-year results.
The post “Sorry I didnt see the stuff under the Best Bet …” by sabal23 has “2 replies” at the bottom left. When I click on it, I see the 2 replies which are duplicated below in the main thread.
I think I may understand the logic now. If you reply to a message in the main thread, it will be duplicated below the message. But if you reply to a reply, then it is not duplicated.
About 75/25 split in favor of H2H single round, just because it is a struggle to find value in tourney matchups. That market is sharp.
Almost always 1U bets, sometimes 2U or 3U but that is based off of feel only. 20% EV is great, but does the “sniff test” should make it make sense too.
Massive 2024 as I hit Knapp at Mexico and Xander at The Open and PGA. Also, absolutely smashed Nationality props. ~90% ROI. My advice: when you have a lot conviction BET MORE.
Absolutely massive year, can’t say enough good things. Up a hair over 90 units on 381 units played, 23.8% ROI . Only edges of 20% and up on outrights, finish, and nationality props, bet using 1/8 kelly staking. Highlights include:
Van Driel outright in Kenya
Steele outright at LIV Adelaide
Schauffele at PGA, of course
Ladder plays on Hoey, Blair, and Chan Kim at ISCO Championship (Biggest weekend of the year)
I have seen a couple posts referencing that you only make a play if over a certain EV% threshold (i.e. outrights >= 20% , etc). Are you guys using custom models or are you using the “DG Base + CH & Fit” model?
444 wagers with a -3.36% ROI. (Yes, not everyone claims they were a winner, or have owned Tesla stock since it went public).
All my wagers were round match ups as only those and futures are offered at our single legal book in our state. (Additional options available an hour drive).
Curious from reading this thread… do you believe there are better opportunities for value in group wagers, 72 hole wagers, nationality wagers, etc?
. Only edges of 20% and up on outrights, finish, and nationality props, bet using 1/8 kelly staking. Highlights include: