I’d be interested to hear people’s opinions in Collin’s R2 projection. In the UK you can get him o68.5 +110 which to me seems very good value. His putting yesterday was way off - not unlucky just some ugly strokes. Playing in the afternoon - I have is expected score around 69.0. Anyone have any thoughts?
why do you have it at 69
Yeah Collin’s putting yesterday was worse than the numbers indicate. Made a long one plus a few mid-length putts to offset a ton of short misses.
Where would you have his expected score Matt?
We have Morikawa’s updated skill as 1.1 better than field average (~0). But to my earlier point, we are going to start incorporating how players gained their strokes when updating skill (e.g. gaining 1 stroke on a 40-foot bomb is less predictive than gaining 1 stroke on three 7-footers). For Morikawa that would make his skill closer to +1 heading into tomorrow. Using our pre-round scoring average of 0.0 and no projected wave split, that would put Morikawa’s expected score right around 69. Looks like course might play a little under par today though, so probably should adjust that down a bit.
Bit of a bad beat that one. David Riley would be an interesting one for that putting strokes adjustment you’re talking about. How much of a skill increase do you have him in for after R3? Could be the one of the greatest putting performances of all time
Not much of an adjustment for Riley. His putting has been a bit lucky, but that’s been offset by no luck in the other categories. I may have overstated Morikawa’s adjustment above, was more like 0.03 strokes. Because putting isn’t that predictive from one round to the next, even if a player has had a full shot of luck with their putting, only 2-3% of that would have been transferred to a player’s skill level for the next round anyways (comparing to the situation where we aren’t making these shot-level adjustments).
Riley is at +11.6 SG currently for the week. The record is 15.2 (this is adjusted SG… but shouldn’t be much of an adjustment this week).
edit: Obviously most of this putting performance is “luck” in that it’s not expected to continue. (that’s the 2-3% carryover part). But I’m focused on a particular type of luck, i.e. how they gained their strokes.
Hope he goes and gets it. I have his expected score at 69.8 though so have taken a decent overs
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