I’d be interested to hear people’s opinions in Collin’s R2 projection. In the UK you can get him o68.5 +110 which to me seems very good value. His putting yesterday was way off - not unlucky just some ugly strokes. Playing in the afternoon - I have is expected score around 69.0. Anyone have any thoughts?
why do you have it at 69
Yeah Collin’s putting yesterday was worse than the numbers indicate. Made a long one plus a few mid-length putts to offset a ton of short misses.
Where would you have his expected score Matt?
We have Morikawa’s updated skill as 1.1 better than field average (~0). But to my earlier point, we are going to start incorporating how players gained their strokes when updating skill (e.g. gaining 1 stroke on a 40-foot bomb is less predictive than gaining 1 stroke on three 7-footers). For Morikawa that would make his skill closer to +1 heading into tomorrow. Using our pre-round scoring average of 0.0 and no projected wave split, that would put Morikawa’s expected score right around 69. Looks like course might play a little under par today though, so probably should adjust that down a bit.
Bit of a bad beat that one. David Riley would be an interesting one for that putting strokes adjustment you’re talking about. How much of a skill increase do you have him in for after R3? Could be the one of the greatest putting performances of all time
Not much of an adjustment for Riley. His putting has been a bit lucky, but that’s been offset by no luck in the other categories. I may have overstated Morikawa’s adjustment above, was more like 0.03 strokes. Because putting isn’t that predictive from one round to the next, even if a player has had a full shot of luck with their putting, only 2-3% of that would have been transferred to a player’s skill level for the next round anyways (comparing to the situation where we aren’t making these shot-level adjustments).
Riley is at +11.6 SG currently for the week. The record is 15.2 (this is adjusted SG… but shouldn’t be much of an adjustment this week).
edit: Obviously most of this putting performance is “luck” in that it’s not expected to continue. (that’s the 2-3% carryover part). But I’m focused on a particular type of luck, i.e. how they gained their strokes.
Hope he goes and gets it. I have his expected score at 69.8 though so have taken a decent overs
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Another final round underperformance from a leader on the DPWT. How do you model final round pressure? The blog suggests -0.4 but for guys that aren’t experienced it feels like it could be much more. Especially if you’re modelling round scores and they have a multiple shot lead
Ya we’ve never been able to really find much of a differential pressure effect looking at different player types. Wrote this at the end of 2024: Model Talk | Does our model overvalue leaders?
Interesting, thanks Matt!
Going to use this forum to ask another question if possible… I’m looking at reed’s round scores for tomorrow. The final decomp had him about 1.7 (if I remember correctly) better than average. He’ll get a small bump for playing well. However we saw that today the course played -0.16 and there average of the final decomp was significantly higher than before the cut, and particularly for the later wave which included most of the “best” guys. So how would you go about predicting reed’s score for tomorrow, if I think the course plays a bit easier?
Have you seen this thread on how to calculate expected scores using our site? How do I get expected strokes for the field from fantasy projections?
It’s repetitive but there are some good nuggets littered throughout.
Regarding Reed, our projected score on the fantasy page is for the remaining players in the field. So, post-cut, I would recommend downloading the skill decomposition and figuring out players’ skill relative to the players who made the cut. And yes Reed’s skill would have been adjusted up for having played well in R1-R3, but he was also leading which results in a negative “pressure” adjustment, so the net effect might be ~0 or negative relative to pre-tournament.
Yes that page is super helpful thank you. Tough day for me with lots of my overs missing by 2. Rozner’s up and down on the last was particularly painful. Sorry I have another question …. Do you account for “blow-up” rounds when forecasting round scores. E.g the median is generally slightly higher than the mean (I think), particularly on causes with water and lots of accessible penalty areas. So if we take the mean and add reed’s differential we are probably slightly overestimating his expected score?
Just read it again and you said that exact thing, so I’ll probably subtract 0.1 or something when I’m forecasting in the future.