Shockingly, he rallied from that awful start to finish top 20. Inevitably, any suggestion of form will mean that he’s well-tipped for next week.
2 Likes
I’m going to say it: DG is sleeping on JH Kim. The guy hits a baby fade for every shot and he’s 20 years old. This guy will probably (80%) only get more consistent.
He’s winning PGA tour events comfortably and consistently performing well in bigger tournaments. Yes he hits it like 200 yards on average but that’s still going to skin the cat on many courses.
As mentioned in this thread or some other one ‘The good guys win right out of the gates’. By the way did I mention he’s only 20 years old?!
1 Like
A couple of months ago I think we liked him more than the market, but now obviously the opposite is true. He does seem really good, I agree. Game seems very similar to Sungjae. I don’t know if he can be a star, though.
1 Like
Always thought this thread had potential providing people didn’t overdo the certainty.
Does Pierceson Coody remind anyone else of Cam Young? Model is ‘low’ on Coody and I get it, he misses a lot of cuts in Korn Ferry fields. He also ‘spikes’: three wins in twenty-six. Cam Young did this. He won back-to-back and came 2nd amongst some awful results on the KFT.
Data-wise they both gain big in distance but are wayward. Do Korn Ferry courses set-up for accuracy? Both were superb amateurs who go to the KFT and have these horrendous weeks mixed with numerous weeks that confirm their pedigree.
Now tbf Coody was pretty bad in his PGA starts so maybe the volatility at a lower level is a worrying sign in this case vs Young’s case and I’m trying to see a pattern amongst randomness.
Sorry if an uninteresting ramble but Coody has stood out as a player showing deep red who I tend to give a bump.
2 Likes
Look at Straka’s results. He misses 6 cuts then has 4*1-10 finishes, then goes back to missing cuts. Same thing, very random.
Another false dawn for Haotong or start of a legit rebound? Taking him on with Law in Rd1 but keeping a close eye.
2 Likes
I have big bets against him. Do you like him ?
Not that I ‘like’/dislike just worth noting that he was a certain level of player for over four seasons before his game completely collapsed. He was dreadful and WD’ing in his last events in '23 then pops up out of nowhere with an impressive performance last week. Situation is tricky to deal with and the model can be slow to react (though this post addresses offseason tweaks designed to combat this problem: https://datagolf.com/model-talk/2024-offseason-tweaks.)
Haotong specifically has had spells of good form that suggested he was returning to the ‘baseline’ of '16-'19 before going off the rails again so hard to know. It is really quite a long time since he’s been consistently decent so for whatever it is worth I’m personally happy to bet against just now. But he’s won at this course and is still only 28 so wouldn’t surprise me if he performs well again.
1 Like
Yes, I would definitely exercise caution with him right now. Happy to bet against him, just not betting the house on it.
haotong is BACK (matt c makes me type 20 characters)
1 Like
already settling my 2 bets against him as losses LOL !
Don’t rule out an 81 from Haotong tomorrow, that would be very on-brand.
Model moved his skill from -2.1 to -1.5 after R1… still not enough compared to the books.
Haotong is BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK!
1 Like
Notoriously undervalued-- Rory McIlRoy.
Remember all of the hullabaloo on twitter about Scotie’s “top16 streak” or whatever fake madeup stat that was? I give you Rory’s run-of-form, not including leading Europe to victory (where Scotie lost 11 and 9 in one match or whatever)
This is the year. Have him locked and loaded at +1000 for a certain tournament in April.
2 Likes
Hm… so you take a big dump on people cherry-picking stats, while Rory’s two starts below what you’ve included here are a T47 and an MC (and then 3rd, MC, T2, T29, T32).
1 Like
“Hm… so you take a big dump on people cherry-picking stats”
This is exactly the point I am making.
Okay, so you agree Scottie’s run of form is still significantly better than Rory’s (when you don’t cherry pick)? Cause that’s not the vibe I picked up.
Maybe your twitter timeline looks different than mine, but for the past year my entire feed has been filled with the INSANE RUN OF FORM that Scottie is on, how it is UNPRECENDENTED, how nobody is close to him right now, blah blah and then listing off his SG ball-striking stats in the last 14 or whatever tournaments (as if the fact that just giving his SG average isn’t enough), and a bunch of content about how Rory cant get tournaments over the line and is distracted, but meanwhile we could just as easily concoct a dumb list of stats that make Rory look like the second coming of Tiger.