What I am saying is that you seem to feel justified by the fact that he hasn’t won recently, but what I am saying is that DG saying he is cheap is different than DG saying he is going to win.
You can do whatever you want with respect to CHIII, but if I am picking out the logical structure of your argument, it is something like:
Which makes no sense to me. That is what I am saying.
Anyways in the spirit of actually contributing to this thread, I would watch out for Gotterup over the next few months and consider sizing down if DG wants to fade him.
Elite am at a point in his career where rapid improvement is possible with the toolset to succeed at this level. Just my two cents.
I see the anti-Howell, Cameron Champ, is smashing it today as the defending champion.
An incredibly rare case where I love backing against him in match-ups (I’ll take bets which DG say are neutral value), but I’ll also take him outright. I suppose that makes him Schrodinger’s Champ, whereby he is both over and undervalued at the same time.
High variance, very high ceiling, not afraid to win, rock bottom floor.
Completely agree with this. Gains so many strokes off the tee each week that even by pure luck putting he can win.
We are in complete agreement on Champ.
Shockingly, he rallied from that awful start to finish top 20. Inevitably, any suggestion of form will mean that he’s well-tipped for next week.
I’m going to say it: DG is sleeping on JH Kim. The guy hits a baby fade for every shot and he’s 20 years old. This guy will probably (80%) only get more consistent.
He’s winning PGA tour events comfortably and consistently performing well in bigger tournaments. Yes he hits it like 200 yards on average but that’s still going to skin the cat on many courses.
As mentioned in this thread or some other one ‘The good guys win right out of the gates’. By the way did I mention he’s only 20 years old?!
A couple of months ago I think we liked him more than the market, but now obviously the opposite is true. He does seem really good, I agree. Game seems very similar to Sungjae. I don’t know if he can be a star, though.
Always thought this thread had potential providing people didn’t overdo the certainty.
Does Pierceson Coody remind anyone else of Cam Young? Model is ‘low’ on Coody and I get it, he misses a lot of cuts in Korn Ferry fields. He also ‘spikes’: three wins in twenty-six. Cam Young did this. He won back-to-back and came 2nd amongst some awful results on the KFT.
Data-wise they both gain big in distance but are wayward. Do Korn Ferry courses set-up for accuracy? Both were superb amateurs who go to the KFT and have these horrendous weeks mixed with numerous weeks that confirm their pedigree.
Now tbf Coody was pretty bad in his PGA starts so maybe the volatility at a lower level is a worrying sign in this case vs Young’s case and I’m trying to see a pattern amongst randomness.
Sorry if an uninteresting ramble but Coody has stood out as a player showing deep red who I tend to give a bump.
Look at Straka’s results. He misses 6 cuts then has 4*1-10 finishes, then goes back to missing cuts. Same thing, very random.
Another false dawn for Haotong or start of a legit rebound? Taking him on with Law in Rd1 but keeping a close eye.
I have big bets against him. Do you like him ?
Not that I ‘like’/dislike just worth noting that he was a certain level of player for over four seasons before his game completely collapsed. He was dreadful and WD’ing in his last events in '23 then pops up out of nowhere with an impressive performance last week. Situation is tricky to deal with and the model can be slow to react (though this post addresses offseason tweaks designed to combat this problem: https://datagolf.com/model-talk/2024-offseason-tweaks.)
Haotong specifically has had spells of good form that suggested he was returning to the ‘baseline’ of '16-'19 before going off the rails again so hard to know. It is really quite a long time since he’s been consistently decent so for whatever it is worth I’m personally happy to bet against just now. But he’s won at this course and is still only 28 so wouldn’t surprise me if he performs well again.
Yes, I would definitely exercise caution with him right now. Happy to bet against him, just not betting the house on it.
haotong is BACK (matt c makes me type 20 characters)
already settling my 2 bets against him as losses LOL !
Don’t rule out an 81 from Haotong tomorrow, that would be very on-brand.
Model moved his skill from -2.1 to -1.5 after R1… still not enough compared to the books.
Haotong is BACK BACK BACK BACK BACK!
Notoriously undervalued-- Rory McIlRoy.
Remember all of the hullabaloo on twitter about Scotie’s “top16 streak” or whatever fake madeup stat that was? I give you Rory’s run-of-form, not including leading Europe to victory (where Scotie lost 11 and 9 in one match or whatever)
This is the year. Have him locked and loaded at +1000 for a certain tournament in April.
